Our aim is to explore the relationship between security and defence policy, on the one hand, and research policy, on the other, and to investigate the potential policy issues that may arise from future developments at the interface between them. Specifically, SANDERA has five objectives:
1. To identify drivers of change in the relationship between security and defence policies and the ERA
To understand the potential future relationship between security and defence policies and the ERA we must begin by understanding the factors that may drive change in security and defence policy, knowledge dynamics and European science and technology policy as well as in the relationship between them. SANDERA will develop a single coherent and multidisciplinary framework that will help to promote a better understanding of the key driving forces and the complex inter-relationships that exist between security policy and science and technology policy. In this way we believe that SANDERA will provide an improved policy-relevant insight into developments which we believe could have far-reaching implications for European science and technology.
2. To develop exploratory scenarios of alternative futures of the relationship between security policy and the ERA
Our second objective will be to develop robust, credible and relevant visions of possible future relationships between security and defence policies and the ERA. Our objective will be to develop scenarios that will enable policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community to explore the consequences of future developments at the interface between security policy and science and technology policy. In this way, policy makers will be able to make better informed choices in the present and to be better able to apprehend and comprehend future developments as they unfold.
The SANDERA scenarios will represent an original approach because (as we have already noted) there has been little European attention paid to these issues despite their considerable potential importance for science and technology policy. The SANDERA scenarios will also be original because they take a European perspective that sees the European Union as an important emerging actor. We will go on to note in this proposal that those studies that have been undertaken have been dominated by analyses from national and particularly U.S. perspectives.
3. To analyse the policy implications of the scenarios
Our third objective will be to analyse the policy implications of our exploratory scenarios and develop a series of indicators that policy makers may use as an “early warning system” of change. SANDERA will deliver improved policy-relevant insight by identifying the opportunities and threats for the ERA posed by evolving security and defence policies, and the opportunities to maximize complementarities between the development of the ERA and of European security and defence policies. SANDERA will seek to strengthen strategic policy intelligence capacity in Europe through the development of an Indicator Monitoring Framework and a Policy Analysis Toolkit. In addition, SANDERA will provide useful inputs for the preparation of the 8th Framework programme by identifying new research areas and research capacity issues arising out of particular scenarios.
4. To develop indicators of change
Indicators of change take two forms. One of these forms is indicators that tell us about the development of drivers – if a particular trend is identified as a critical driver, then evidence that this trend actually is taking place, or is accelerating, is suggestive that this driver is becoming more important. The other type of indicator is that demonstrating that one or other scenario is, or is not, taking place. The indicator may be simply a quantitative statistic reflecting a dependent variable – for example, a recent review of forecasts of skill requirements in the IT sector has demonstrated that current trends are actually below those indicated in any of the scenarios generated by the IT industry itself in recent years, in this case invalidating these scenarios (or, to put it more brightly, suggesting that the emerging future is closest to the more pessimistic of these scenarios). But the indicator might also be a “signal” of change coming from a particular event, for example an outrage like 9/11 that demonstrated that there were groups at large who were prepared to turn everyday technologies into instruments of large-scale destruction. In scenario work it is common to ask participants to suggest classes of event that would be indicative of one or other pattern of development materialising.
5. To stimulate dialogue and promote stronger networking between the security policy and science and technology policy communities
The final objective of SANDERA will be to stimulate dialogue and promote stronger networking between the security policy and science and technology policy communities and begin the process of developing a shared understanding of the opportunities and threats posed by policy actions at the intersection of security policy and the ERA.
We believe that this objective represents an original vision that will improve the quality of European policy debate. We also note that it will involve a considerable degree of risk taking. We will be attempting to bring together two policy communities that are by and large separate. Each has its own discrete set of policy concerns, stakeholders and policy networks. We also believe that this objective represents a creative approach to the problem of promoting policy discourse between two communities that remain relatively isolated from one another despite the fact that developments in one policy field may have direct or indirect implications for the other policy field.